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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis

Date: January 13, 2025

Monthly Analysis

MSFT MONTH

MSFT’s monthly trend shows two major phases:

  1. Pre-2000 upward trend
  2. Post-2009 new trend

The period between 2000-2009 shows a monthly-level oscillation pattern.

Key observation: The adjustment high point after 2021 was 351, while MSFT’s current price is only around 410, indicating limited momentum. If the weekly trend ends here, the monthly-level adjustment could be significant, potentially marking the end of the major trend that began in 2009.

Weekly Analysis

MSFT WEEKLY

The weekly trend is clear: the trend since 2022 ended in July 2024 (marked in red on the chart).

Currently entering a weekly oscillation range, meaning:

MSFT DAILY

With both weekly and daily charts in large oscillation ranges (three overlapping daily oscillation ranges), there’s no immediate reason to expect a daily breakout. We should observe if the daily rebound can save the trend.

Selling after trend failure would be better, but this scenario is unlikely to occur.

Comparative Analysis with NVDA

Date: January 30, 2025

Monthly Comparison

MSFT Monthly

NVDA Monthly

Comparing NVDA and MSFT monthly trends, MSFT appears weaker as its monthly trend has turned while NVDA’s hasn’t.

Weekly Comparison

MSFT WEEKLY

NVDA WEEKLY

MSFT’s weekly trend has been in an oscillation range since February 2024, confirming the end of the trend that began in December 2022. The key consideration is whether Microsoft can establish a new upward weekly trend, which requires first forming a daily trend.

For MSFT, the appropriate strategy is to trade within the oscillation range and consider adding positions only after a daily trend forms.

For NVDA, we’re in the early stages of forming a weekly oscillation pattern. If formed, the target range is 75-89. Since we’ve already reached the 115 level retracement, the 75-89 range is likely achievable. If a weekly oscillation pattern forms, we can consider NVDA’s weekly trend complete.

However, the key difference between NVDA and MSFT is that NVDA has risen 10x from $11 to $120 since late 2022, with a previous peak at $35. If NVDA forms a weekly oscillation pattern ending the previous uptrend, or if it fails to form oscillation and develops a downward trend, the target would be $35.

The main focus is determining whether NVDA will form an oscillation range or a downward trend. For a weekly downward trend to form, a daily downward trend must first develop.

From a downward trend perspective, NVDA’s gap is its key difference from MSFT, as it has already formed a daily downward trend and likely a weekly downward trend. Strictly speaking, there’s still a slight difference from the weekly trend - if the daily downward trend doesn’t fill this gap within the next two weeks, the necessary conditions for a weekly downward trend will be met, though we’ll need to observe momentum for sufficient conditions.

NVDA Daily

In this context, while MSFT adjusted earlier, its oscillation range is narrower and more defined, indicating it has already formed a weekly oscillation pattern. We only need to observe whether this weekly oscillation will lead to a new upward trend or a downward trend.

Technical Analysis

Market Context

US Tech Stocks

Chinese Tech Stocks

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